Petroyuan Gains Traction After Iran War Tests Dollar

Lead

The conflict in Iran that intensified in early 2026 has put renewed stress on the dollar's role as the primary invoicing currency for global oil, with Deutsche Bank warning that the shock could materially accelerate the emergence of a petroyuan, Bloomberg reported on Mar 25, 2026. Deutsche Bank's note—carried by Bloomberg—highlights a reported 15% year-on-year increase in yuan-settled oil transactions in 2025, the proliferation of yuan-denominated swaps and an uptick in bilateral state-level currency arrangements that bypass conventional dollar clearance channels. For institutional investors, the question is not only whether a petroyuan is feasible, but the speed and vector of adoption: bilateral trade pacts, state-owned oil companies' contracts, or financial market instruments such as yuan oil futures and swap lines. This piece reviews the macro and market evidence, assesses sector implications, and offers a Fazen Capital perspective on potential scenarios for commodity markets and currency reserve dynamics.

Context

The dollar's predominance in oil trading has historical roots in the 1970s petrodollar arrangements and subsequent financial plumbing—clearing systems, offshore dollar liquidity pools, and deep US Treasury markets—that underpin global energy trade finance. IMF and BIS estimates through the early 2020s placed dollar invoicing of oil and commodity trade broadly in the 70–90% range depending on methodology and timeframe; that structural backstop has been eroding incrementally but remained dominant. The war in Iran presents a different kind of stress test: sanctions, payment rail disruptions and countermeasures from producers and buyers create operational incentives to seek alternatives to dollar-based settlement.

China has pursued the internationalisation of the yuan for over a decade with policy tools including yuan-denominated crude futures launched in 2018, cross-border RMB settlement schemes, and bilateral currency swap lines. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported foreign exchange reserves of approximately $3.2 trillion at end-2025, providing a cushion to support internationalisation initiatives. Meanwhile, bilateral deals—particularly between China and Middle Eastern suppliers—have been structured in commodity-for-currency swaps and local-currency bilateral trade, reducing the operational dependence on dollar-clearing in specific corridors.

Deutsche Bank's March 2026 note (reported by Bloomberg, 25 March 2026) frames the Iran war as a catalyst. The bank highlights transactional evidence: an estimated 15% YoY rise in yuan-settled oil trades in 2025, increased use of yuan swap lines by commodity traders, and tentative moves by some OPEC suppliers to explore non-dollar settlement. These metrics are early-stage relative to the dollar's historical dominance, but they are meaningful given the concentrated share of global crude imports that China represents (China has been the largest crude importer for several years) and the network effects of clearing and hedging infrastructure.

Data Deep Dive

Reported quantitative signals are uneven but directionally consistent. Bloomberg (Mar 25, 2026) cites Deutsche Bank on a 15% increase in yuan-settled oil transactions in 2025; this follows earlier data showing yuan usage in global trade settlement rising from mid-single digits in the early 2020s to higher levels in specific corridors. Comparable metrics include the volume of yuan-denominated oil futures traded on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE): open interest and notional turnover climbed materially between 2019 and 2024, with periodic spikes tied to geopolitical events and yuan volatility.

On the liabilities side, sovereign reserve allocations are more inertial. Official sector reserve data to end-2025 continue to show the dollar as the dominant reserve asset; IMF COFER style aggregates indicate USD shares north of 50% (methodological caveats apply). Private-sector balance-sheet moves are faster: large Chinese state-owned oil companies and trading houses have expanded bilateral swap lines and increased use of onshore and offshore CNH liquidity to settle contracts. In practice, this matters because the marginal shift from dollar to yuan for a subset of global flows can be accomplished through concentrated counterparty networks without an immediate wholesale shift in reserve currency allocations.

Market reaction has not been uniform. Oil prices have reflected both geopolitical risk premia and liquidity shifts: Brent spiked by more than 8% in the immediate two weeks following the escalation in Iran-related hostilities in March 2026, according to intraday Reuters and Bloomberg price feeds. Concurrently, the Chinese yuan (CNH) showed episodic appreciation versus the dollar, bolstered by PBOC interventions and domestic capital inflows, which made dollar-avoidance marginally more attractive for some importers who could hold yuan-denominated receipts.

Sector Implications

For energy producers, especially state-controlled exporters, the calculus is pragmatic. The imperative is realization of value and market access; currency denomination is negotiable if counterparties and payment rails are reliable. Suppliers with strong ties to China—Saudi Aramco, Russia's Rosneft, Iraq's Basra fields—have greater leverage to offer yuan settlement on price or volume concessions. That process can intensify during periods where sanctions or dollar-clearing risks materialize, as with Iran. However, many Gulf suppliers retain dollar invoicing because of hedging convenience, distribution of trade finance and the fungibility of dollars in capital markets.

For commodity traders and banks, the core issue is hedging infrastructure. Yuan-settled trades require liquid hedging instruments to manage exposure; the maturity and depth of yuan-denominated derivatives markets have improved but remain shallower than USD-denominated instruments. International banks with RMB operations and Chinese counterparties can offer tailored netting and swap solutions, but global banks with limited CNH presence face operational and capital frictions. This differential favors regional and Chinese banks in the short run and suggests a bifurcated market where yuan-denominated oil contracts concentrate in specific pools.

For FX and fixed-income investors, a gradual increase in yuan invoicing could have knock-on effects: reduced seigniorage benefits for the US if dollar demand from trade invoices contracts, altered demand for short-term dollar funding, and persistent demand for yuan liquidity by commodity counterparties. Yet the speed and scale of any shift matter: a 15% uptick in yuan-settled oil trade is significant but not transformational by itself unless sustained growth and broader acceptance occur across non-Chinese clearing hubs.

Risk Assessment

Operational risks loom large. Settlement in yuan outside China requires counterparties to manage CNH liquidity, credit lines, and sometimes local custodian arrangements. Cold-starting new clearing chains elevates counterparty credit and settlement risk, particularly in times of market stress. Sanctions risk is another variable: suppliers or buyers seeking to avoid dollar exposures may still face secondary sanctions from the US, complicating counterparties' legal and compliance frameworks.

Market concentration risk could also emerge. If yuan-denominated oil trading aggregates into a smaller number of trading hubs or opaque bilateral contracts, price discovery could suffer, widening bid-ask spreads and increasing basis risk. That would disadvantage smaller refiners and traders that rely on transparent benchmark pricing like Brent and WTI. Conversely, maturation of transparent yuan-denominated benchmarks and deeper onshore/offshore hedging markets would mitigate these risks over time.

Geopolitical countermeasures are non-linear. The US and its allies retain policy tools—secondary sanctions, financial pressure on banks, and diplomatic instruments—that can slow a rapid shift away from the dollar. China, meanwhile, balances strategic goals with the need to avoid destabilizing its own capital account and domestic financial stability. Any sustained pivot will be a multi-year process with episodic accelerations tied to geopolitical shocks, not a single inflection point.

Fazen Capital Perspective

Our contrarian view is that the petroyuan trajectory is better characterized as a multi-speed realignment rather than a binary dethronement of the dollar. The Iran war is an accelerant, but institutional frictions—derivatives market depth, reserve asset inertia, legal frameworks and the centrality of US capital markets—insulate the dollar from rapid displacement. We expect a rising share of China-directed oil flows and selected bilateral contracts to move to yuan-denomination: a plausible scenario is a regionalised dual system where yuan billing concentrates in Asian import corridors while dollar-denominated contracts persist for Western markets.

From an investment-structure perspective, opportunities will arise in niches: banks and clearinghouses that provide robust CNH liquidity solutions, exchanges that expand yuan-denominated hedging instruments, and logistics players that facilitate bilateral settlement. These pockets of growth can be meaningful for earnings and market share without implying an immediate collapse of dollar-centric instruments. See our broader research on market structure and currency risk at topic and implications for commodity-linked credit at topic.

A less obvious implication is that an expanded petroyuan could increase demand for certain Chinese onshore assets as institutional counterparties seek yield and liquidity in yuan to manage settlement flows. That would create cross-asset linkages between commodity trade patterns and China credit markets, a dynamic that has not been priced fully into many global portfolios.

Outlook

Near-term, expect episodic increases in yuan-denominated oil settlement tied to geopolitical flare-ups, bilateral diplomatic agreements and targeted commercial deals. Quantitatively, a scenario where yuan invoicing reaches the low- to mid-teens percent range of global oil trade over 3–5 years is plausible if infrastructure and hedging depth continue to improve. Longer-term displacement of the dollar would require not only transactional shifts but also meaningful changes in reserve asset allocations and a clear, liquid pathway for international investors to hold and hedge yuan exposures at scale.

Policy responses will be decisive. If the US and allied financial systems increase the cost of non-dollar clearing via sanctions or regulatory pressure, adoption could be curtailed or pushed into more opaque channels. Conversely, if China and trading partners build transparent, enforceable clearing and settlement mechanisms that reduce counterparty risk and offer robust hedging, adoption could accelerate. Investors should monitor three leading indicators: volume and open interest in yuan-denominated oil futures (INE), the number and size of bilateral currency swap arrangements announced by national treasuries or central banks, and changes in official sector reserve allocations as reported in IMF COFER-like disclosures.

FAQ

Q: How fast could a petroyuan displace the dollar? A: Historical currency regime shifts are measured in years-to-decades. Even with the 15% YoY rise in yuan-settled oil flows cited by Deutsche Bank (Bloomberg, Mar 25, 2026), wholesale displacement of the dollar would require sustained growth, deeper yuan hedging markets, and reorientation of reserve portfolios—conditions unlikely to be met within 12–24 months barring a major systemic shock.

Q: Would a petroyuan reduce oil price volatility? A: Not necessarily. A bifurcated invoicing regime could introduce basis risk between yuan- and dollar-settled contracts and temporarily widen spreads. Over time, if liquidity concentrates and arbitrage becomes efficient, price discovery could normalize, but the transition may increase short-term volatility and hedging costs.

Q: What signals should investors watch? A: Track INE futures open interest, official swap lines (PBOC announcements), and public bilateral settlement agreements by major producers. Also monitor regulatory moves from the US and allied jurisdictions regarding secondary sanctions and banking compliance—these shape the operational calculus for counterparties.

Bottom Line

The Iran conflict is a catalyst that could accelerate, but not immediately complete, the internationalisation of the yuan in oil trade; the petroyuan is becoming a credible alternative in specific corridors, while the dollar's structural advantages persist. Continued monitoring of transactional volumes, hedging depth and policy responses is essential for assessing the speed and scope of any transition.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.